Baseline Informed Speculation

Wait Times as of May 2007

Even though we know that it will be *years* until we are matched with our Chinese daughter, we still like to speculate sometimes. Various people come up with tools to crunch numbers or calculate with some degree of well, something similar to informed speculation or wild guessing, the date of our match referral. Here's my current list of speculation, informed and otherwise:

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Someone (anxiouslywaiting) on RQ has come up with a handy chart to show number of dossiers per month and number of months AND the number of dossiers they have been matching per month.

http://chinaadopttalk.com/forum/index.php?topic=4784.0

Granted, this does not take into account people who are later in the process and not yet being counted, but...


Number of dossiers to our LID (people ahead of us in line)
divided by 27.39 LIDs (average number matched per day, aka 833 per month)
= the number of days we will wait based on the snapshot of the poll
= 1817.93975... (days left to wait)
Divided by 365 days per year (not worrying about leap years)
= 2.609158 months until we are matched.

To make a long calculation short, they say we are looking at

2.6 years (2 years and 7 months), putting us at late Oct, early Nov of 2009.

As anxiouslywaiting says, "It is math and not necessarilly reality but it is the best I can do realizing that the poll is not perfect."

He also says, "It is still just a guessing game and this is only an educated guess based upon a snapshot in time with a lot of data collected from rumors over the months. it is probably as reasonable as we can expect to get at guessing ........ but anything goes really."
So there you go: informed speculation.

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Now, there's another tool on the web at the chinaadoptionforecast website.
http://chinaadoptionforecast.com/

They say the time of our referral is likely to come somewhere between a minimum of August 8, 2008 and a maximum of July 16, 2031 (ha! that's why they call it the maximum!).

But wait; they have a better idea, and another calculator that does not require me to slave over my calculator.

"Our best guess - a weighted average of recent CCAA velocities, guessing that the CCAA will perform as well in the future as they are performing now, but might return to previous trends:"

April 27, 2010

Without putting too fine a point on it, that's a little over three years, one month, and one week of a wait. *sigh* At this rate, I will be happy if the wait doesn't go over THAT.

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My agency's updated website is still saying 18-20 months wait to match, between Sept and Nov of 2009.
At this point, I am guessing they don't want to come right out and say "up to or beyond three years." They'll raise the numbers slowly, that's my guess.


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